Conjecture

Barbara Lewandowska-Tomaszczyk, University of Applied Sciences in Konin, Poland
barbara.lewandowska-tomaszczyk@konin.edu.pl

Conjecture is an opinion, judgement, or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information, through intuition or educated guessing. In other words, conjecture is a guess about something based on how it seems to be rather than on proof. Although it can serve as a starting point for further investigation and is formed through observation, pattern recognition, or logical reasoning, conjectures typically lack rigorous evidence or proof. Therefore, Dreamer finds that contrasted with, for example, hypothesis, which refers to proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation, conjecture is more speculative and lacks evidence or proof. While Popper as well as Lakatos view conjectures, being speculative in nature, lack concrete evidence or proof, nevertheless, they can be valid in science (e.g., in the field of mathematics) and lead to new insights and discoveries when considered tentative solutions to a problem, and controlled by criticism, i.e., by attempted refutations, which include severely critical tests.

Keywords: evidence, guessing, intuition, pattern recognition, reasoning

Related Entries: Opinion, Evidence, Truth

References:
Deamer, D. (2017). Conjecture and hypothesis: The importance of reality checks. Beilstein Journal of Organic Chemistry, 13, 620–624. https://doi.org/10.3762/bjoc.13.60
Lakatos, I. (2007). Falsification and the methodology of scientific research programmes. In I. Lakatos & A
Musgrave (Eds.), Criticism and the growth of knowledge (pp. 91–197). Cambridge University Press.
Popper, K. R. (1963). Conjectures and refutations: The growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge.