Public Opinion as a Statistical Distribution

Christian Baden, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
c.baden@mail.huji.ac.il

Public Opinion as a Statistical Distribution conceives of public opinion as the distribution of evaluative stances regarding a given issue within a given public. This conceptualisation follows an electoral metaphor, wherein every member of the public is equally considered once, such that the count distribution of all opinions over a set of categories expresses the preferences of the public as a whole. Public opinion is said to support a certain idea if a majority of members of the public do so. Everyone’s opinion counts the same, regardless of the identity of the opinion holder, the intensity or foundedness of the opinion, or other possible differences. Public opinion is typically understood as predictive of individuals’ behavioral choices.

Public Opinion as a Statistical Distribution is closely related to a quantitative methodological perspective wherein opinions are elicited by means of standardised survey questions from a population statistically representative of the considered public. Operationally, this approach presumes that people hold attitudes toward an issue and are capable of mapping their preferences upon a given set of categories or dimensions, which must be defined by the investigator. Using standardised scales, public opinion dynamics can be measured as over-time changes in the distribution of opinions. Public opinion as statistical distribution is most commonly studied as an antecedent and predictor of collective choices and mass behavior, such as electoral votes, health behavior, consumer selection, or other life choices. Other applications, which often complement survey methods with experimental designs, seek to explain the distribution of opinions based on personal traits, experiences, and exposure to various forms of information available in public discourse. A key limitation of this conceptualisation is that recorded opinions may be more or less deep-rooted and thus differentially relevant for predicting behavior, or shaping others’ views, by means of being expressed in public discourse.

Keywords: aggregation, public opinion polls, majority

Related Entries: Public Opinion, Public Opinion as a Discursive Process

References:
Berinsky, A. J. (2017). Measuring public opinion with surveys. Annual Review of Political Science, 20, 309-329. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-101513-113724
Converse, P. E. (1987). Changing conceptions of public opinion in the political process. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 51(2), 12-24. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/51.4_PART_2.S12
Perrin, A. J., & McFarland, K. (2011). Social theory and public opinion. Annual Review of Sociology, 37, 87-107. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.012809.102659